next-release

That’s in the next release

If you have ever worked with software, particularly that of which is in its early development you come to realise very quickly that it’s never quite what you expected. Very rarely are you surprised to the upside.

Our expectations of software are almost always higher than what we are presented with, it is not to say that software doesn’t get there eventually, it does. We are surrounded by software that works and to the average user, the concept of a ‘bug’ remains in the physical world. It’s just the reality that how we perceive software in our head to work often lacks the detail and intricacies that the developers/Business analyst are faced with whilst building. This inevitably leads to delays as these problems are solved (keyword solved).

Product releases are spent talking to product managers about why certain features were not included, why the new features don’t work properly and working out when they will be fixed. Not that those deadlines have any real significance, ultimately we are all at the hands of the developers. Almost all Cryptocurrency projects out there are exactly the same, and this ‘expectation shock’ is only further heightened by the fact that with utility tokens the lines between an investor and a customer are now more blurred.

expectation-shock

Expectation shock

Put it this way, Let’s say you download a new app, you like it so you purchase some app tokens because you know next release they are releasing some ‘premium features’ which sound great and you think you can buy them ‘cheap’ now. Almost without a doubt the ‘premium features’ will be less exciting than you imagined….. were told? (marketing can blur the lines here too). Unfortunately, the app tokens you bought turn out to be not as ‘cheap’ and the ‘premium features’ aren’t as premium as you thought either. so what do you do?

Maybe you hold onto them… maybe you sell…inevitably someone will sell. And ultimately that selling pressure leads to a fall in price.

So what is the lesson here?

Our theory is that more often than not the upside of any ‘new feature/new release’ is already priced in, more than likely overpriced because our expectation of what we expect outweighs the utility. Chris Burniskie’s Crypto J Curve is a good analysis of this as well.

There are plenty of Mainnet launches to see if this plays out as we predict. Tron and EOS have both recently launched both with differing results. This thought process is however not limited to main net launches so take the time and analyse the price effect as major upgrades propagate through this space.